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The Influence of Human Capital on GDP Dynamics: Modeling in the COVID-19 Conditions


Zhanna Derii, Tetiana Zosymenko, Kostiantyn Shaposhnykov, Yuliia Tochylina, Denys Krylov, Oleksandr Papaika


Vol. 22  No. 3  pp. 67-76


COVID-19 struck labor markets around the world, exposing and exacerbating the gender inequalities within the human capital structure. The last, in its turn, jeopardizes the return of the national economies to the growth trajectory undermined by pandemic impact. The authors assume that COVID-19 disproportionately affected the employment rates of women and men, which led to increased gender inequality in the labor market, which, in turn, affected GDP growth rates in the EU. To prove this hypothesis two research questions are discovered: 1) whether there was a different correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases in the EU and indicators of the labor market for women and men; and 2) whether there was a link between the growth of gender inequality in the EU labor market and the GDP dynamics in these countries. The analysis of the correlation between the number of cases of COVID-19 and indicators of the labor market in the EU revealed faster growth of women’s unemployment rates compared to men’s ones as the COVID-19 incidence unfolded. Multiple linear regression and factor analysis have been used to investigate the influence of gender inequality in the labor market on GDP dynamics. Despite the methodological limitations, the proposed model is both a sound argument and an analytical basis in favor of gender-responsive economic recovery backed by the systematic and consistent gender equality policy of a government.


COVID-19, labor market, gender inequality, GDP growth rate, gender gap, unemployment, employment rate, financial fragility, unpaid care work.